Global Change Biology

Shifting land-use, wildlife exploitation and exotic species have reduced the range and abundance of many species, directly causing severe biodiversity loss at local scales, and indirectly limiting the scope for sufficient ecological and evolutionary adaptation to future climate and environmental change.​

We use ecological models that integrate demographic, physiological and evolutionary responses to well-established threats to biodiversity to improve predictions of future extinctions, design effective adaptation strategies for achieving ecological resilience to global change, and to better manage invasive species


Key Papers

  • Fordham D.A et al. (2018) How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models. Global Change Biology DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13935

  • Fordham DA et al. (2016) Williams SE, Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics. Biology Letters doi:10.1098/rsbl.2016.0236

  • Mellin C et al. (2016) Humans and seasonal climate variability threaten large-bodied, small-ranging fishes on coral reefs. Nature Communications 7, 10491 doi:10.1038/ncomms10491

  • Pearson RG et al.  (2014) Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change. Nature Climate Change 4, 217–221 doi:10.1038/nclimate2113

  • Fordham DA  et al. (2013)  Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate. Nature Climate Change 3, 899-903 doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1954

  • Fordham DA et al. (2013) Tools for integrating range change, extinction risk and climate change information into conservation management. Ecography 36, 956–964 doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00147


Figure |Using mesocosms to parameterise and refine climate-biodiversity models. Mesocosm experiments can be used to improve predictions of the impact of climate change on individual species and whole communities by parameterising metapopulation and metacommunity models, and testing and refining population and community ecology theory. See Fordham 2015

Figure | Schematic of a coupled niche population model for managing the crown of thorn starfish (Acanthaster planci) on the great barrier reef. See Mellin et al. 2016